Peyvast

1979 was the year that the Iranians almost unanimously elected an Islamic system of government in Iran. In fact that was not only an Iranian choice but the obvious choice of the Western and Eastern powers whom by withdrawing their support from the Shah and later democratic prime minister Bakhtiar and by supporting Ayatollah Khomeini and his Islamic revolution coerced in to a transfer of power in the Middle East that later proved to be disastrous not only to Iranians but to the rest of the world.

The creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran was the result of a joint error by the Iranian nation and major world powers that created a geopolitical shift which resulted in the expansion of the Islamic Extremism not only in Iran but in whole Middle East and the world. This turning point later caused other waves of Islamic extremism such as Al Qaeda and its direct attacks on US soil (9/11) as well as other major cities around the world.

30 years later on June 12, 2009 Iranians are facing another major decision that soon can result in a chain of other serious consequences for them and for the rest of the world. Although the center of power in Iran remains to be in the hands of its supreme leader and other unelected officials but this time, it is the Iranian presidential elections that will mark a turning point in the direction of events in Iran and the world.

The current four presidential choices presented to Iranians by the unelected Guardian Council of the Islamic Republic can be categorized in to two camps of:  Extremists (Mahmoud Ahmeadinejad and Mohsen Rezai) or more moderates (Mir Hussein Mousavi and Ayatollah Karoubi),  Ahmeadinejad and Mousavi being the front runners of each camp.

The Iranian presidential elections of 2009, in a way also mirrors the choices that Americans had between continuation of status quo of Bush era extremism reflected in John McCain and supported by the religious right or a choice of a change for a more moderate and acceptable candidate; Barack Hussein Obama.

But the similarity does not end there. There is another common scenario that played just before the scheduled vacuum and transfer of the power from the right to the center (Bush to Obama) and that was Israel’s launch of an attack on Hamas extremists at the all costs which resulted in many civilian casualties as well as weakening of Hamas military positions. Hamas being the ruling extremist Islamic party that was popularly elected by the Palestinians and supported by Iran. The invasion of Gaza in a way was also similar to previous Israeli invasion of Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, another extremist party supported by Iran, a war which also resulted in many civilian casualties.

Ahmadinejad’s constant verbal attack on the existence of Israel to the point of denial of Holocaust which was the starting cause of creation of Israel combined with the nuclear and missile technology advancements and ambitions of the extremists within the Islamic Regime of Iran has been of a serious concern to the government of Israel and western nations.

 It is historically proven that anytime Israeli’s have found their existence or security to be in serious danger, without any hesitation and at all costs including civilian casualties they have attacked the source of their concern. The invasions of Gaza and Southern Lebanon in the past few years have been only two examples of such fundamental strategy.

Obama administration has openly and behind the scenes been discouraging Israel of attacking Iran which to this date Israeli’s has complied with. However the agreement has not been indefinite and it has only been postponed until the outcome of the elections in Iran. In fact all along Obama administration has been aware of the high probability of an Israeli attack and has been preparing itself for the potential expansion of the war by Iran to other areas such as Persian Gulf. The decision to deploy in two phases 10’s on thousands of new military personnel to Afghanistan, among other reasons, has been part of this preparedness. The issue was also discussed behind closed doors with the Turkish Officials during the recent Obama visit. In fact US forces have militarily surrounded Islamic Republic from Turkey to Iraq to Kuwait, to Persian Gulf, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Regime of Iran has been aware of these developments and behind the scene has also been preparing itself for a potential attack on its nuclear facilities. Earlier this week Iran successfully tested its newly made medium range missile capable of more precise strikes at the heart of Israel.

The missile launch immediately caused a code red military alert by Israel.  As a result United States military this week and in the middle of the night (US time) put its forces worldwide on notice with specific preparedness order for a possible Israel/US/Iran war.

None of these recent alerts have been made public but neither were the surprise attack on Gaza shortly after Obama’s election.

On June 12 the decision of a potential war on Iran is determined, but not in Tel Aviv or Washington but in the polling stations of Iran. If by popular vote or by some other mysterious way, either names of Mahmoud Ahmeadinejad or Mohsen Rezaei (extremist former revolutionary guard chief who is on the Interpol top wanted list) comes out of the ballots of the Islamic Republic, short of any major new developments on either side, a war triangle of Israel/US/Iran will most likely be inevitable soon.