Peyvast

Based on my math, 80% of eligible 46 Million Iranian voters should participate in this Friday’s election for Mousavi to win by 51% . That is unlikely but not impossible. The same math shows me that Ahmadinejad has no chance of winning on the first round either.

Short of large attendance the election can extend to second round and if another miracle for Ahmadinejad doesn’t happen like it did 4 years ago (His votes jumped from 19% to 62% from 1st round to 2nd in 2005!) then Mousavi gaining most of Karoobi votes will win the elections.

As supporters of Mousavi have been accurately chanting, if there are no cheatings Mousavi will win this Friday or next! 

Will large majority of eligible Iranian voters participate in election? Will there not be more major cheating?

Time will tell soon!

Reference: Wikipedia 2005 Iran Election results