Peyvast

Although opinion polls in Iran are not scientific but they are showing a surprising trend:

Ahmadinejad popularity seem to have substantially dropped even among conservatives and Mohsen Rezaii’s chance has substantially increased to the point that he can be the 2nd runner winning conservative winner. This polls also show that neither Mousavi or Rezaii will obtain 51% required vote! If such scenario happens the second round will be between Rezaii and Mousavi ! This correlates with Rezaii’s good performance during the debates in comparison to Ahmadinejad.

This potential trend is very similar to what happened in 2005 when Ahmadinejad came out in 2nd position after Rafsanjani in the first round and in the second round he suddenly obtained more than 60% vote which many thought it was the result of cheating.

But the major difference last time was that many who boycotted the last election are voting this time and most are Mousavi voters which makes me still believe that Mousavi will win (if there is no cheating)

Will Islamic Republic pull another surprise conservative candidate out of the ballots ? These polls are not reliable but anything is possible with mullahs in power.